PAKISTAN’S efforts to end energy crisis have impaled it on the horns of a dilemma: it wants to end power shortfalls at the earliest using coal but also needs to keep its environment clean.

Electricity is a major issue in Pakistan’s electoral politics, and the government has opted for coal-based power under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

In the meantime the government is also working to implement the climate change policy as part of the UN agenda to implement Sustainable Development Goals. Pakistan also ratified the Paris climate agreement in November last year.

The difficulty facing the government and environmentalists is how to minimise carbon emission threat in the proposed coal-based power projects when the industry is desperate for quick fixes for ending energy shortages in the country.

For businessmen, uninterrupted supply of energy is crucial. But can we afford to compromise long-term development for the sake of short-term gains?

Pakistan is at the early stage of implementing a policy for climate change, a subject which was not taken seriously before. It still needs to be understood in its context properly.

Many developing and developed countries are making efforts to curb carbon emissions and switching to renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar power.

However, Pakistan is developing its coal industry to meet growing energy demand at a time when the world, including China, is leaving this option behind.

Pakistan went to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris without much preparation. The country was supposed to present its voluntary commitments — called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) — aimed at limiting global warming. But the government could not submit an impressive INDC.

However, in the 2016 climate change conference held in Morocco, Pakistan did submit a nationally determined commitment. It was a voluntary commitment and Pakistan never asked for an exemption from carbon emission reduction.

Many environmental experts have reservations about Islamabad’s current and future projections for carbon emission in these commitments. Questions were raised over the methodologies used to calculate emissions scenarios in Pakistan.

“I am a strong critic of dirty energy and I believe that Pakistan should not have opted for coal-powered electricity under the CPEC,” Dr Abid Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, told Dawn. “However, I am also mindful of the fact that electricity is a major issue in Pakistan’s electoral politics.”

Successive governments have failed to make a civil nuclear technology deal with the United States. Moreover, projects like Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India pipeline and Central Asia-South Asia power project could not take off either. Pakistan had virtually run out of money to import expensive furnace oil to run its power plants.

In that context, an offer from China to install coal-based power plants, despite its negative environmental consequences, was an attractive proposition.

Currently, Pakistan has the cleanest energy mix among its peer economies. However, the situation would change after the installation of coal-based power plants, Dr Suleri said.

The argument that the government presents in its defence is that other nations have to reduce their carbon emission when their state of economy is “business as usual”. But Pakistan’s economy has been in an unusual state and needs to catch up with the others through the use of coal-based energy.

It also argues that the upcoming power plants will use supercritical technology, which helps minimise the carbon emissions threat.

A similar claim was also made by Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah in Islamabad last week that low sulphur content and ash in Thar coal ranked it a better fuel for power generation. The opposition to power generation from Thar coal was unjustified, he said.

Many experts at the same time question why Pakistan is not using the low-cost alternative renewable energy sources abundantly available in the country.

The potential for the use of alternative technologies has never been fully explored in Pakistan. Wind power provides opportunity to reduce the dependence on imported fossil fuel and at the same time boost the power supply capacity to remote locations where grid expansion is not practical.

The Sindh chief minister also blamed the federal government for not allowing the province to exploit the alternative energy sources.

According to a metrological department study, the gross wind power potential in Sindh is 43,000MW. Keeping in view the area utilisation constraints, the exploitable electric power generation potential of this area is estimated to be about 11,000MW.

Besides, Pakistan’s hydropower generation potential is around 60,000MW as compared to the total installed capacity of 6,556MW. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Federally Administrated Tribal Areas are gifted with immense potential for generating hydropower.

For long-term benefit, the government will have to focus on building dams, which can give multiple benefits like energy, agriculture, food, employment, etc. Solar and wind are good but Pakistan must focus on hydropower for long and sustainable development in the country.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 25th, 2017

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