There’s a slim chance Dallas could hit the jackpot in Monday’s NBA draft lottery and move up to No. 1. — slim being 1.8%.
The reward would be Duke freshman Cooper Flagg, the consensus top pick. But the odds — 77.6%, to be exact — are the Mavericks will stay in their current slot at No. 11.
In 16 previous trips to the draft lottery, the Mavericks have never moved up, so let’s think realistically. If the franchise stands pat or drops to No. 12, a pool of valuable prospects will still be available.
Drafting at their designated position isn’t the only option. Dallas can trade its first-round pick, along with the pick it gained from Los Angeles in the Luka Doncic trade (a 2029 unprotected first) and its first-rounder in 2031 to bolster its core around Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.
But it might behoove the Mavericks to keep the 2025 pick and target a guard who could add to the team’s backcourt depth next season until Irving returns from rehabilitating his torn left ACL, which could be in 2026.
If the Mavericks hold on to their pick, whom could they select?
Based on the latest mock drafts by ESPN, The Ringer and The Athletic, these seven prospects are near locks for the top 10: Duke forward Cooper Flagg, Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, Rutgers forward Ace Bailey, Baylor guard VJ Edgecomb, Texas guard Tre Johnson of Lake Highlands, Maryland center Derik Queen and Duke center Khaman Maluach.
Here are five players who are realistic options for the Mavericks, assuming they’re still available and Dallas remains No. 11.
Jeremiah Fears, guard, Oklahoma
If Fears is still on the board when Dallas is on the clock, he could be the guy to help keep the team afloat in Irving’s absence and fill the scoring and playmaking void at the point guard position.
Fears, a 6-4 freshman guard, is projected to be a top-10 pick after his lone season at Oklahoma. He averaged 17.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists last season while also coming up with 1.6 steals per game.
Kasparas Jakucionis, guard, Illinois
Back on the guard front. If the Mavericks want a shot-creating guard in the 11-12 range, Jakucionis could still be on the board. The Illinois star freshman is a creative scorer who can finish at the rim and from the perimeter.
Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor listed Goran Dragic and Spencer Dinwiddie, who led the Mavericks in games played last season and will be an unrestricted free agent this season, as realistic comparisons for Jakucionis.
The guard averaged 15.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists last season but also committed 3.7 turnovers per game. That’s not ideal at the NBA level, so his capabilities as a primary ballhandler have some room to grow.
Collin Murray-Boyles, forward, South Carolina
A couple of mock drafts project the Mavericks to select Murray-Boyles if they keep the No. 11 pick. This could be possible if the team brass decides adding a rookie point guard to a group of veteran stars such as Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson wouldn’t be an ideal fit. Instead, Dallas could opt to seek a veteran guard through trade or free agency.
Murray-Boyles, one of the most productive players in college basketball, could be a viable option for the Mavericks’ second unit who would improve their wing depth, another roster need. The 6-7 sophomore averaged 16.8 points and 8.3 rebounds last season, showing an ability to make plays for himself and others.
A strong defender, Murray-Boyles would align with that aspect of the Mavericks’ new identity, and his size says he could play small forward in the pros, though he played power forward in college.
Labaron Philon, guard, Alabama
Philon declared for the draft last month and claimed he’s 100% in on the draft process, but he left the door open for a potential return to Alabama for his sophomore season.
If he chooses to remain eligible, Philon has good size for a point guard at 6-4 and competes on a nightly basis. He averaged 10.6 points last season and struggled from 3, shooting 31% from beyond the arc, but he has a “hustle on each play” mentality that teams value.
Jase Richardson, guard, Michigan State
This list is full of freshmen, but this particular one-and-done guard could bode well for the Mavericks if he’s still on the board. The son of former NBA high-flyer Jason Richardson has an NBA-ready game after his lone season playing for Tom Izzo at Michigan State.
He’s 6-6 and has a good feel for the game, but his perimeter shooting stands out the most. Richardson shot 41% from beyond the arc last season and played meaningful minutes during the Spartans’ NCAA tournament run. His game doesn’t resemble his father’s, which was built off athleticism and slashing, but the younger Richardson possesses a good handle and can play away from the ball as well.
Twitter: @MikeACurtis2
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