NEW DELHI — The disaster came with no warning. Mist filled the air, and the earth started shaking. Pushkar Singh ran for his life.
CHINA
Pang
UTTARAKHAND
INDIA
“The river was flooding with massive boulders. The trees were falling,” said 37-year-old Singh. “It was terrifying.”
Singh is a resident of Pang village in the mountainous state of Uttarakhand, home to more than 10 million people in northern India where a deadly cascade of rock, debris and icy water earlier this month wreaked havoc, sweeping away bridges and a power plant. Officials recovered the bodies of 58 people, and nearly 150 others remain missing, as rescue operations continue into the second week.
Experts around the globe are studying satellite imagery to understand what caused the avalanche. But the massive flooding illustrates the risks of development in an area vulnerable to the accelerated effects of climate change: The Himalayan range, the Hindu Kush, the Tibetan Plateau and their peaks are known as the “Third Pole” because they contain the largest repository of glacial ice in the world outside the Arctic and Antarctica.
All that ice is susceptible to the warming temperatures in the region, which have outpaced the rate of global average warming in recent decades. The melting ice and expanding glacial lakes heighten the risk of landslides and floods. Environmentalists say the construction of dams and power projects and road-building development works have put millions of people in a precarious position.
The strong warming trend in the vicinity of the Nanda Devi glaciers
Variation from average annual temperature
since 1897
2 degrees Celsius
Warmer
than
average
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Colder
than
average
-1.5
-2
1900
1940
1980
2020
Temperatures were measured at the Mukteshwar
Kumaon station, about 80 miles south of the
Nanda Devi glaciers.
Sources: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Data analysis by Mylène Jacquemart, University of
Colorado Boulder.
The strong warming trend in the vicinity of the Nanda Devi glaciers
Variation from average annual temperature since 1897
Warmer
than
average
2 degrees Celsius
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Colder
than
average
-1.5
-2
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Temperatures were measured at the Mukteshwar Kumaon
station, about 80 miles south of the Nanda Devi glaciers.
Sources: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Data analysis by
Mylène Jacquemart, University of Colorado Boulder.
The strong warming trend in the vicinity of the Nanda
Devi glaciers
Variation from average annual temperature since 1897
2 degrees Celsius
Warmer
than average
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Colder
than average
-1.5
-2
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Temperatures were measured at the Mukteshwar Kumaon station, about 80 miles south of the
Nanda Devi glaciers.
Sources: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Data analysis by Mylène Jacquemart, University of
Colorado Boulder.
The strong warming trend in the vicinity of the Nanda Devi glaciers
Variation from average annual temperature since 1897
2 degrees Celsius
Warmer
than average
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Colder
than average
-1.5
-2
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Temperatures were measured at the Mukteshwar Kumaon station, about 80 miles south of the Nanda Devi glaciers.
Sources: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Data analysis by Mylène Jacquemart, University of Colorado Boulder.
Experts say the massive flooding was caused by the collapse of both a section of rock and a “hanging glacier” — a huge chunk of ice — along a steep slope. The mass plummeted into the valley at a high speed, colliding at the base with glacial sediment. The resulting slush crashed downstream into the Rishiganga River.
“The water came down like a tsunami,” said Kalachand Sain, the director of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, whose team conducted a field study last week.
Origin of
avalanche
Affected
river
valleys
Debris flow
UTTARAKHAND
Pang
Glaciers
Collapsed bridge—
Collapsed
power plant
Joshimath
Chamoli
Gopeshwar
North
Damaged
power plant
10 MILES
Sources: Emergency Response
Coordination Center, Ashok Kumar,
police chief of Uttarakhand
Origin of
avalanche
Debris flow
Affected river
valleys
Pang
UTTARAKHAND
Glaciers
Collapsed bridge—
Collapsed
power plant
Joshimath
Vishnu Prayag
Chamoli
Gopeshwar
Damaged
power plant
North
10 MILES
Sources: Emergency Response
Coordination Center, Ashok Kumar,
police chief of Uttarakhand
Origin of avalanche
Debris flow
Pang
UTTARAKHAND
Affected river
valleys
Collapsed bridge—
Collapsed
power plant
Glaciers
Joshimath
Vishnu Prayag
Chamoli
Gopeshwar
Damaged
power plant
North
10 MILES
Sources: Emergency Response Coordination Center,
Ashok Kumar, police chief of Uttarakhand
Origin of avalanche
Debris flow
Pang
UTTARAKHAND
Collapsed bridge—
Affected river
valleys
Collapsed
power plant
Glaciers
Joshimath
Vishnu Prayag
Chamoli
Gopeshwar
Damaged
power plant
North
10 MILES
Sources: Emergency Response Coordination Center,
Ashok Kumar, police chief of Uttarakhand
International researchers have largely ruled out the most obvious climate-related threat: a glacial lake outburst flood, a known hazard in this region that happens when retreating glaciers leave unstable lakes behind them at high altitudes. The changing climate is making these floods worse.
“I can say pretty conclusively, no glacial lake outburst flood occurred,” said Dan Shugar, an expert on glacial hazards at the University of Calgary.
Shugar estimates that 25 million cubic meters of rock and ice mass fell. Upon impact, he said, the ice could have been crushed and melted by the huge heat generated by the fall, leading to the formation of a large amount of water and debris that cascaded downhill, crashing against multiple dams and creating a giant surge.
Were rising temperatures the spark? Possibly, but scientists can’t say for sure yet. Both ice and permafrost hold together rock in high mountain areas, meaning that thawing can destabilize mountain walls, but no one is certain that’s what occurred here. Landslides and avalanches sometimes happen on their own.
“We can never know whether this piece of particular rock would have fallen with or without climate change,” said Mylène Jacquemart, a scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder who studies the role of climate change in hazardous mountain conditions. “Quite likely that it would have. It’s really steep. Rocks fall, they do all the time. But the overall signature that we’re seeing when we look at all of the events globally, yeah, this seems to be more and more of a problem.”
The melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas in particular is dramatic and accelerating, recent research has found, with the pace of change much faster in the 21st century than the 20th.
“This area is in the tight grip of climate change,” said Joerg Schaefer, a glaciologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, who has documented widespread losses of glacial ice across the region over the past four decades. “This is one of the areas where climate change will be most directly hazardous, and on the shortest time scales.”
Glaciated areas
Populated areas
Detail
Srinagar
Jammu
PAK.
CHINA
Lahore
UTTARAKHAND—
Site of
landslide
INDIA
NEPAL
New Delhi
Lucknow
250 MILES
Glaciated areas
Populated areas
Detail
Srinagar
Jammu
PAK.
Lahore
CHINA
UTTARAKHAND—
Site of
landslide
INDIA
NEPAL
Mt. Everest
New Delhi
Kathmandu
Lucknow
Jaipur
250 MILES
Glaciated areas
Populated areas
Detail
Srinagar
Jammu
PAK.
Lahore
CHINA
Chandigarh
UTTARAKHAND
Site of
landslide
Saharanpur
INDIA
NEPAL
New Delhi
Mt. Everest
Kathmandu
Jaipur
Lucknow
Agra
100 MILES
Glaciated areas
Populated areas
Detail
Srinagar
Jammu
PAK.
Lahore
CHINA
Chandigarh
UTTARAKHAND
Site of
landslide
Saharanpur
INDIA
NEPAL
Moradabad
New Delhi
Mt. Everest
Kathmandu
Agra
Jaipur
Lucknow
100 MILES
Glaciated areas
Populated areas
Detail
Srinagar
Jammu
PAK.
Lahore
CHINA
Chandigarh
UTTARAKHAND
Saharanpur
Site of landslide
INDIA
NEPAL
Moradabad
New Delhi
Mt. Everest
Kathmandu
Agra
Jaipur
Lucknow
100 MILES
In the part of the Indian Himalayas where the disaster occurred — the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve — glacial retreat is well documented. A study published last year looked at the area’s major glaciers and found that they had lost approximately 10 percent of their area since 1980, equivalent to 10 square miles of ice-covered slopes. The prominent Uttari Nanda Devi Glacier, for instance, is retreating at 72 feet per year.
The pace of warming in the Nanda Devi region appears possibly even a bit above average, with one long-standing temperature station about 80 miles from the disaster showing approximately 1.4 to 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.5 to 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since the late 19th and early 20th century.
The latest disaster is “proof that the climate crisis can no longer be ignored,” said Abinash Mohanty, a researcher at the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water. In a recent report, he found that the frequency and intensity of extreme flooding and landslides in Uttarakhand had increased fourfold in the past five decades.
Experts have long warned about the role of infrastructure projects in exacerbating the impact of disasters like these.
Ravi Chopra, who heads the People’s Science Institute in Dehradun, the largest city in the state, said he views the disaster as “two events.” The falling of the rock and ice mass is a natural event, he said, but as it rolled down the river, it encountered barriers like bridges and dams. The floods picked up more debris and moved with greater speed after smashing into these barriers, which he called a “man-made disaster.”
A view of a lake high above Raini village on Feb. 12, days after flooding surged through the district. (Uttarakhand Police/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) In 2013, Uttarakhand was the site of one of the worst natural disasters in the country after massive floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains killed thousands of people. In its aftermath, Chopra led a committee, following a Supreme Court order, that recommended no dams be built in “para-glacial zones” — areas where glaciers have retreated and left behind massive amounts of debris.
The two hydropower projects damaged in the latest flood are in these para-glacial zones, he said. The committee’s recommendations were challenged by developers in court. The case is ongoing.
A day after the disaster, Trivendra Singh Rawat, the chief minister of Uttarakhand, urged people not to use the tragedy to “build an anti development narrative.”
For Singh, the local resident who witnessed the disaster unfold, the past weeks have brought forth long-held fears.
“We were always scared that something would happen because of the constant blasts” from the construction, he said. Local protests did not stop the power projects.
“We are scared of a repeat of flash floods, but what can we do?” he said. “We cannot leave our village.”
Kashmiri Muslims in Srinagar pray during the funeral for Basharat Ahmad Zargar, a hydropower plant worker who was killed in the floods on Feb. 7. (Mukhtar Khan/AP) Glacier locations are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center GLIMS database. Populated areas are from the Global Human Settlement data set published by the European Commission.
Mooney reported from Washington. Taniya Dutta in New Delhi contributed to this report. Graphics by Hannah Dormido, Júlia Ledur and Tim Meko. Photo editing by Olivier Laurent. Design by Dwuan June.