Water Blackmail: A dirty game from Armenia to India

Water blackmail is one of the dirtiest tools used in conflicts. As you know, even predators do not attack watering holes, because water is the basis of life. And people, or rather, some countries, are at such a low level of consciousness that they are inferior to tigers and rhinos.

How India does it

The Indian government has announced that it is working to cut off the supply of water from the Indus River to Pakistan. As stated by the Minister of Water Resources of this country, Chandrakant Raghunath Patil, "so that not a single drop of water gets into Pakistan."

To this end, New Delhi has already announced that it is withdrawing from the agreement signed in September 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank. The treaty divided the Indus River and its tributaries between the neighbors and regulated the distribution of water. India received the right to use water from three eastern rivers - the Sutlej, Bisa and Ravi, and Pakistan - the western Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. He received 80 percent of the water from the Indus River, 20 percent remained in India. 80 percent of Pakistan's agriculture depends on the waters of the Indus, and diverting the stream would plunge the country into catastrophic drought, hunger and poverty.

This effect is probably expected in India. This country has decided to take advantage of the destruction of international law to deal with a long-time adversary. Fortunately, India is located upstream, that is, it is in an advantageous position. The sources of the rivers of the Indus basin are under her control. However, not everything is so simple, and the Indians will have to wait until the "dream" comes true. According to Indian experts, it will take decades to wait, because India does not have any suitable infrastructure and opportunities to deploy the Indus River right now. India will not be able to abruptly stop the flow to Pakistan, and it will not feel significant consequences for at least the next 30-50 years, DW quotes Indian experts. Despite the grandiose plans of the Modi government, the water cannot be stopped suddenly. Of course, now all efforts will be thrown at water projects, reservoirs and hydroelectric power plants in order to increase water intake, but the final result will not be achieved soon. If it can be achieved at all.

According to Reuters, if water flows become unstable, crops dependent on irrigation, such as wheat, rice and sugar cane, will suffer in Pakistan. Khalid Hussain Baas, Chairman of the National Farmers' Union of Pakistan, called India's actions an act of aggression. "This is a real war. We already don't have enough water because of climate change. There has been little precipitation this year, and the water level is already 20-25 percent lower than last year," he said.

Pakistan has warned that it would consider an attempt to stop the flow of water as an act of war. But that's all India seems to need. This country is clearly acting with someone's go-ahead. Someone who needs an explosion in a region dominated by China has allowed Delhi to withdraw from a treaty that has been strictly observed at all times, even during periods of hostilities.

According to the agreement, India, as a country located upstream of transboundary rivers, must share with Pakistan the hydrological data necessary for flood forecasting, irrigation planning and the formation of drinking water reserves. Now India is withdrawing from this obligation, although the treaty does not provide for a unilateral withdrawal from the agreements. In Islamabad, they say that the neighbor has not fulfilled his obligations to inform for a long time. "India was only sharing about 40 percent of the data even before it made the last statement," former Indus Waters Treaty Commissioner Shiraz Memon told the BBC.

At this stage, India cannot leave Pakistan completely without water, but it can flood territories along the Indus riverbed. It can flush silt from its reservoirs without prior warning, potentially causing damage downstream in Pakistan. And there is a lot of silt in the rivers originating in the Himalayas.

According to Indian media, India has already flooded its neighbor on April 26. Without warning, water was discharged into the Indus tributary, the Jhelum River, which led to a sharp rise in the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir. The water was released from the Uri hydroelectric dam. The unexpected discharge of water caused an emergency situation in Hattian County, forcing people living along the river banks to leave their homes. There are also reports of livestock deaths and crop damage.

In India, they rub their hands, rejoicing at the effect. Forgetting one very important fact - China is located even upstream, and the Indus originates in the mountains of Tibet. In addition, India is located in the basin of one of the largest waterways in South Asia, the Brahmaputra, which flows from China. It is important not to forget that China is an ally of Pakistan.

In 2016, when India tried to withdraw from the treaty for the first time, China blocked the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge at the source of the Brahmaputra. At the end of 2020, the Chinese authorities announced the construction of a dam in the gorge, which should become the largest in the world. The project was approved in 2024, and the construction of the hydroelectric power station gives China almost complete control over the river, much of which is located in India. Although no statements of support were made for Islamabad, both New Delhi and other interested capitals saw a connection and pattern in the confluence of events. Beijing, as always, is peaceful and claims minimal environmental impact, but downstream they are very concerned that new hydraulic structures will give China serious control over the source.

The moral is this: in India, we must not forget that there is always a counteraction to any action.

How Armenia did it

And now let's move to our region and recall how Armenia, during the years of occupation of the territories of Azerbaijan, turned the cross-border and Karabakh rivers into an instrument of pressure on its neighbor.

For almost thirty years of control over Azerbaijani lands, Armenia has made efforts to deprive Azerbaijani regions located in the lower reaches of the rivers outside the occupation zone of water or flood them.

The Azerbaijani side has repeatedly drawn the attention of international structures to these actions of the Armenian occupiers, which are completely contrary to the relevant international legislation. As a result of these efforts, during the PACE winter session in 2016, the report "The population of the border regions of Azerbaijan is deliberately deprived of water" was adopted, concerning the problems created by the occupiers to the Azerbaijani side in connection with the use of the resources of the Sarsang reservoir. The use of water, according to international conventions, is an integral element of human rights, and the use of transboundary bodies of water for purposes of blackmail and pressure is unacceptable.

Unfortunately, the adoption of this document has not changed anything either in the behavior of the Armenian side or in the attention to the problem of the same Parliamentary Assembly. The only way to change the situation was the military liberation of the territories and the return of control over reservoirs and waterworks by Azerbaijan.

At the height of the occupation, Yerevan was making plans to divert the water of the Armenian rivers flowing to Nakhchivan and the water of the Sarsang reservoir. This facility was built on the initiative of national leader Heydar Aliyev in 1976. Sarsang is the fourth largest reservoir in the country after Mingachevir, Shamkir and Araz hydroelectric power plants. Before the occupation, hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land in Terter, Barda, Yevlakh, Goranboy, Agdam, and Agjabedi districts were irrigated with its water. In order to prevent water from flowing into these areas, during the years of occupation, plans were considered in Armenia to build a canal from the reservoir to irrigate the lands of the occupied Agder district by gravity. An estimate of $100 million was made, and the search for investors began. Our neighbors have always had a very diverse imagination, and the project did not stop there. In the vague future, it was planned to build hydroelectric power plants on the canal and even export (!) electricity obtained from water stolen from Azerbaijani regions.

Back in 2008, the Ministry of Ecology of Azerbaijan sounded the alarm in connection with the severe turbidity of the water in the Terter River and the mass death of fish. It turned out that the separatists had begun to clear the Sarsang reservoir of silt. The cleaning work was carried out by a Russian company. The wastewater was drained into a grater and sent downstream. Analyses performed during that period showed that 90 percent of the water was unusable, as ammonium was found in it. In addition to deliberately poisoning rivers, the Armenian side practiced abrupt discharge of water in winter and blocking it in summer, causing droughts and floods in areas in the unoccupied zone.

Almost all the years of the conflict in Armenia, they have been puzzling over how to make sure that the "Armenian rivers" do not flow into Azerbaijan. Armenian media reported on plans to build reservoirs in Tavush, which would dramatically reduce the amount of water entering Azerbaijani territory. "Not a drop of water for Azerbaijan!" was the slogan of the campaign. The occupiers intended to build 14 reservoirs and take tens of millions of cubic meters of water from transboundary rivers. But no money was found for this in Armenia, and none of the sympathizers dared to invest in this outrage.

I remember that Aramais Grigoryan, one of the former ministers of nature protection of Armenia during the time of Serzh Sargsyan, stated in an interview with journalists that Armenia was "sending the waters of the Azat River to Azerbaijan in vain." The minister does not know that rivers flow from top to bottom according to the laws of physics, and not with the permission of Yerevan.

After the 44-day war, realizing that the end was near, the separatists tried to destroy the reservoir. The Sarsang level has dropped by a record 25 meters due to unprecedented water intake for the needs of power plants. The Armenians tried to explain this act of ecocide as a "blockade" and blame the transformation of the reservoir into a puddle on Azerbaijan.

The Sarsang reservoir was saved only by the counter-terrorism operation of September 2023. A year later, the mirror area of the reservoir, which returned to Azerbaijani control, reached its maximum size in 10 years - 1,065 hectares.

What does international law say?

In 1996, the World Water Council began its activities with headquarters in Marseille. And the issues of using water during conflicts are regulated by the following documents:

The Geneva Conventions of 1949 and their three Protocols, adopted in 1977 and 2005, are now recognized as key international instruments aimed at protecting the rights of civilians in military conflicts.;

The Dublin Principles, signed under the auspices of the United Nations in 1992;

Helsinki Rules (Association of International Law), which provide the legal basis for the United Nations Water Convention, signed in Helsinki in 1992;

Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (Espoo (Finland), 1991);

Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment (Kiev, 2003);

On June 28, 2010, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution recognizing "the right to safe and clean drinking water and sanitation as a human right.";

GA resolution A/RES/73/226 "Midterm comprehensive review of the implementation of the International Decade for Action "Water for Sustainable Development", 2018-2028" (2018);

UN General Assembly Resolution A/RES/72/178 "Human rights to safe drinking water and sanitation" (2017).

In 2000, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the Water Resources Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC) to end disputes and implement water resources management and protection based on balanced standards.

All these documents prohibit water blackmail and restriction of the supply of water to civilians during conflicts.

Did Armenia know about the existence of these documents? She's probably aware, but the impunity that this country has always enjoyed has allowed her to suffer from legal amnesia. Everything that was done was done openly, without looking back and without waiting to hear a shout. If not for the victorious war, the abuse of the aquatic environment in 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territories could have become irreversible. Once again, we were convinced that we need to resolve some issue, it is better to do it ourselves, rather than sacrificially wait for justice.

The Indian government is also unlikely to be very concerned about the existence of international bans on water blackmail.

It is not surprising that Armenia and India understood each other so well.